Impact of potential modifications to Alzheimer's disease clinical trials in response to disruption by COVID-19: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted Alzheimer disease randomized clinical trials (RCTs), forcing investigators to make changes in the conduct of such trials while endeavoring to maintain their validity. Changing ongoing RCTs carries risks for biases and threats to validity. To understand the impact of exigent modifications due to COVID-19, we examined several scenarios in symptomatic and disease modification trials that could be made. METHODS: We identified both symptomatic and disease modification Alzheimer disease RCTs as exemplars of those that would be affected by the pandemic and considered the types of changes that sponsors could make to each. We modeled three scenarios for each of the types of trials using existing datasets, adjusting enrollment, follow-ups, and dropouts to examine the potential effects COVID-19-related changes. Simulations were performed that accounted for completion and dropout patterns using linear mixed effects models, modeling time as continuous and categorical. The statistical power of the scenarios was determined. RESULTS: Truncating both symptomatic and disease modification trials led to underpowered trials. By contrast, adapting the trials by extending the treatment period, temporarily stopping treatment, delaying outcomes assessments, and performing remote assessment allowed for increased statistical power nearly to the level originally planned. DISCUSSION: These analyses support the idea that disrupted trials under common scenarios are better continued and extended even in the face of dropouts, treatment disruptions, missing outcomes, and other exigencies and that adaptations can be made that maintain the trials' validity. We suggest some adaptive methods to do this noting that some changes become under-powered to detect the original effect sizes and expected outcomes. These analyses provide insight to better plan trials that are resilient to unexpected changes to the medical, social, and political milieu.

Cross-Sectional Exploration of Plasma Biomarkers of Alzheimer's Disease in Down Syndrome: Early Data from the Longitudinal Investigation for Enhancing Down Syndrome Research (LIFE-DSR) Study.

With improved healthcare, the Down syndrome (DS) population is both growing and aging rapidly. However, with longevity comes a very high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The LIFE-DSR study (NCT04149197) is a longitudinal natural history study recruiting 270 adults with DS over the age of 25. The study is designed to characterize trajectories of change in DS-associated AD (DS-AD). The current study reports its cross-sectional analysis of the first 90 subjects enrolled. Plasma biomarkers phosphorylated tau protein (p-tau), neurofilament light chain (NfL), amyloid ß peptides (Aß1-40, Aß1-42), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) were undertaken with previously published methods. The clinical data from the baseline visit include demographics as well as the cognitive measures under the Severe Impairment Battery (SIB) and Down Syndrome Mental Status Examination (DS-MSE). Biomarker distributions are described with strong statistical associations observed with participant age. The biomarker data contributes to understanding DS-AD across the spectrum of disease. Collectively, the biomarker data show evidence of DS-AD progression beginning at approximately 40 years of age. Exploring these data across the full LIFE-DSR longitudinal study population will be an important resource in understanding the onset, progression, and clinical profiles of DS-AD pathophysiology.